(An extract from Foreign Direct Investment 2020)
The World Bank forecasts global growth, as continued to
soften in 2019. Subdued investment in emerging market and developing economies
(EMDEs) is dampening potential growth prospects. Risks to the outlook remain
firmly on the downside, including the possibility of escalating trade tensions.
Another concern is rising debt, which may make it difficult for EMDEs to respond
to adverse developments and to finance growth-enhancing investments. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF): Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest
level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019
World Economic Outlook. Growth is projected to pick up to 3.4 percent in 2020
(a 0.2 percentage point downward revision compared with April), reflecting
primarily a projected improvement in economic performance in a number of
emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and emerging and developing
Europe that are under macroeconomic strain.
Many of Caribbean Development
Bank’s (CDB) Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) are blessed with great economic potential
and growth opportunities. It is one of the world’s top tourist destinations,
with its stunning scenery and vibrant cultures drawing visitors from across the
globe. However, the region’s greatest threat is its vulnerability and exposure
to natural disasters. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of natural
hazard events in the Caribbean, it is imperative that our Region embrace a
comprehensive package of resilience-building measures. That includes
macroeconomic management and the creation of fiscal buffers; climate-proofing
of our critical economic infrastructure; and the creation of a resilient, and
reliable interisland transportation network across the Caribbean archipelago.
Failure to respond comprehensively and expeditiously to these challenges will
put paid to our vision of building prosperous societies and halving abject
poverty by 2025.
The
Trinidad & Tobago economy looks to
have remained muted in the second quarter, following three straight quarters of
contraction, although comprehensive data is yet to be released. Production of
LNG, natural gas and oil, as well as cement exports, declined in Q2, although
ammonia exports rose year-on-year. Turning to the third quarter, economic
activity looks to have fared better, as LNG production rebounded solidly and
local cement sales grew firmly, boding well for the construction sector.
Meanwhile, the recently announced 2020 budget proposed increasing the minimum
wage and tax incentives for energy companies, which should help alleviate weak
domestic demand and increase energy sector revenues going forward. Economic growth should rebound somewhat in 2020, partly as increased
government spending spills over into domestic demand. Furthermore, investment
into offshore gas facilities should also support growth. That said, volatile
commodity prices and the crisis in Venezuela continue to pose risks to the
outlook. FocusEconomics panelists
see growth of 1.5% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s
forecast. In 2021, our panel sees growth of 2.0%.
The Trinidad & Tobago total estimated expenditure,
TT$58.1Bn. up by 7.22%, for the fiscal year 2020, must Invite Investments; utilizing the nation’s Competitive Advantages; a small and maneuverable economy, a central
geographic location, a peaceful political environment, a highly skilled and
talented workforce, relatively low crime rates, an oil & gas exporter with
strong foreign currency financial reserves. Investments, foreign or local, to
fund Entrepreneurial Ideas which are judged to be or become viable and can
expand existing or develop new sector or industry Opportunities and Jobs that will help the people, the nation, the
region and other small island economies Adapt to future challenges.
The Executive Cabinet is being asked to take
the lead, by insulating its Auditor General, Central Bank, Budgetary &
Investment Divisions and Statistical Office from the politics, by strengthening
the nation’s financial laws and its Security & Exchange Commission to meet
international standards, giving a higher level of comfort to investors. Enhancing
its local Stock Exchange with new, low risks, listings that will give comfort
to employees and their unions, by offering ownership with steady capital gains
to offset inflationary pressures and pay modest but dependable quarterly
dividends and to utilize IPO gains, while recognizing that People drive Diversification.
Rationale
T.A.J & Associates Company Limited uses this occasion to comment on topics that have been covered, both academically and by the mainstream media, to add its opinion and point out investment opportunity, not to invoke any social action.
