The World Bank forecasts global growth, after reaching 3.1
percent in both 2017 and 2018, is expected to decelerate over the next two
years as global slack dissipates, major central banks remove policy
accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures. Amid moderating
international trade and tightening global financing conditions, growth in
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is projected to plateau,
reaching 4.7 percent in 2019 and 2020, up from 4.5 percent in 2018. The International
Monetary Fund (IMF): The steady expansion under way since mid-2016
continues, with global growth for 2018–19 projected to remain at its 3.7
percent for 2017 level. At the same time, however, the expansion has become
less balanced and may have peaked in some major economies. Downside risks to
global growth have risen in the past six months and the potential for upside
surprises has receded.
Many
of Caribbean
Development Bank’s (CDB) Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs) are blessed with great economic potential
and growth opportunities. It is one of the world’s top tourist destinations,
with its stunning scenery and vibrant cultures drawing visitors from across the
globe. However, the region’s greatest threat is its vulnerability and exposure
to natural disasters. Given the increasing frequency and intensity of
natural hazard events in the Caribbean, it is imperative that our Region
embrace a comprehensive package of resilience-building measures. That includes
macroeconomic management and the creation of fiscal buffers; climate-proofing
of our critical economic infrastructure; and the creation of a resilient, and
reliable interisland transportation network across the Caribbean archipelago.
Failure to respond comprehensively and expeditiously to these challenges will
put paid to our vision of building prosperous societies and halving abject
poverty by 2025.
The Trinidad & Tobago
economy likely performed well in the second quarter, supported by higher
energy prices and greater natural gas production thanks to the Juniper project.
This fed through to an increase in government revenues which helped the fiscal
deficit narrow markedly in year-on-year terms. In Q3, elevated crude prices
should have continued to buttress economic activity, although the non-oil
sector likely remained sluggish. On 1 October 2018, the government presented
its budget for the 2019 fiscal year. It estimates double-digit revenue growth,
a more modest increase in spending, and a marked narrowing of the fiscal
deficit, to be financed mainly by domestic capital markets. Growth should accelerate
next year due to greater natural gas output, as the Angelin project comes
online. Low economic diversification however makes the country vulnerable to a
downturn in energy prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.2% this year and 1.8% in 2019.
The
Governance category, allocated
TT$2.6Bn. 4.69% of total expenditure up by 6.75%, for 2019, consist of The Ministry of Public Administration with The
Personnel Department, Ministry of Communications, The Judiciary & The Industrial Court, Ministry of the Attorney General and Legal Affairs, Other Heads
of Expenditure involved in Governance, The Office of the Prime Minister,
and The President & The Parliament, that monitors good, moral and
ethical, behavior.
The
Fiscal Policy category,
functioning on a budgetary allocation of TT$16.8Bn. 30.19% of total national expenditure
down by 4.91%, for 2019, comprises the Ministry
of Finance, Charges on Account of
the Public Debt and Pensions and
Gratuities, must focus efforts on increasing productivity and revenue
collection while, reducing the nation's debt and debt servicing expense.
The
Economic Drivers category
with TT$2.6Bn. 4.53% up by 36.74%, for 2019, is administered by the Ministries
of Planning and Development, Energy and
Energy Industries, Foreign and CARICOM Affairs, Labour and Small Enterprise
Development, Tourism, Trade and Industries, Agriculture, Lands and Fisheries.
The resulting, taxation earnings revenue, to offset its total annual
expenditure, comes from the collections of taxes, duties and royalties; taxes
on (personal income) salaries and wages, on (consumption) sales and value
added, on (operations) business levy and green fund, on (corporation) profits,
etc.
The
Infrastructure
Management category, utilizing TT$11.5Bn. 20.40% of the nation’s total
expenditure, 20.74% up by 4.36%, for 2019, consist of funds transferred to the Tobago House of Assembly, the Ministries of Rural Development and Local
Government, Housing and Urban Development, Public Utilities, and Works and
Transport.
The
Human
Development category is allocated TT$16.2Bn. 29.20% of the nation’s total
expenditure, up by 2.70% for 2019is to execute policies, strategies and
initiatives of the Ministries of Health,
Education, Social Development and Family Services, Community Development,
Culture and the Arts, and Sport and Youth Affairs. Noting that, the
progress of any country, nation, society is driven by its human resource and
the development of such; its citizenry, its people, its skills and talents.
The
Resource
Preservation category comprises funds TT$5.9Bn. 10.66% of the nation’s
total expenditure up by 6.67% for 2019, falling squarely under the ambit of the
divisions of the Ministry of National
Security; the Defence Forces, its arms, divisions and initiatives, and for
all intents and purposes, are key mandates of the Police Service.
The
Trinidad
& Tobago total estimated expenditure, TT$55.6Bn. up by 2.31%,
for the fiscal year 2019, must Invite
Investments; utilizing the nation’s Competitive
Advantages; a small and maneuverable economy, a central geographic
location, a peaceful political environment, a highly skilled and talented
workforce, relatively low crime rates, an oil & gas exporter with strong
foreign currency financial reserves. Investments, foreign or local, to fund
Entrepreneurial Ideas which are judged to be or become viable and can expand existing
or develop new sector or industry Opportunities
and Jobs that will help the people, the nation, the region and other small
island economies Adapt to future challenges.
The
Executive Cabinet is being asked to take the lead, by insulating its Auditor
General, Central Bank, Budgetary & Investment Divisions and Statistical
Office from the politics, by strengthening the nation’s financial laws and its
Security & Exchange Commission to meet international standards, giving a
higher level of comfort to investors. Enhancing its local Stock Exchange with
new, low risks, listings that will give comfort to employees and their unions, by
offering ownership with steady capital gains to offset inflationary pressures
and pay modest but dependable quarterly dividends and to utilize IPO gains,
while Diversifying for Growth.
Rationale
T.A.J
& Associates Company Limited
uses this occasion to comment on topics that have been covered, both academically
and by the mainstream media, to add its opinion and point out investment
opportunity, not to invoke any social action.
