The World Bank forecasts global growth, after reaching 3.1
percent in both 2017 and 2018, is expected to decelerate to 2.9 percent in 2019
and over the next two years as global slack dissipates, major central banks
remove policy accommodation, and the recovery in commodity exporters matures. Moderating activity and heightened risks are clouding global
economic prospects. International trade and investment have softened, trade
tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging market and developing
economies (EMDEs) have experienced financial market pressures.
The
International
Monetary Fund (IMF): After
peaking at close to 4 percent in 2017, global growth remained strong, at 3.8
percent in the first half of 2018, but dropped to 3.2 percent in the second
half of the year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies.
Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so,
financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for
vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced
economies later in the year, weighing on global demand.
Many
of Caribbean
Development Bank’s (CDB) Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs)
are blessed with great economic
potential and growth opportunities. Economic performance in the Caribbean is set
against a background of slowing global economic growth. The current
international economic environment is characterised by escalating trade
tensions, volatile commodity markets, and policy uncertainty with respect to
both BREXIT and U.S. trade. In spite of all these developments, in 2018 most of
CDB’s BMCs recorded positive economic growth. Growth averaged 1.9%, an
improvement on 0.5% in 2017. The fastest growing economies were Grenada (5.2%),
Antigua and Barbuda (3.5%) and Guyana (3.4%). For Antigua and Barbuda and some
of the other BMCs that were affected by the 2017 hurricane season,
reconstruction efforts contributed to their upturn. CDB is projecting that real GDP growth will be
2.1% in 2019.
The Trinidad & Tobago
economy likely performed well in the first quarter 2019. The Angelin
project, which came online in late-February 2019, will have supported LNG output
growth, boding well for the energy and external sectors. Moreover, domestic
cement sales bounced back in Q1 2019 after contracting in Q4 2018; this
suggests stronger construction activity and was likely reinforced by government
measures to support the housing sector. This followed a rebound in the economy
for 2018. The energy sector accelerated last year on the back of increased
natural gas production from the Juniper project; however, the non-energy sector
was flat, held back by tepid domestic demand and weakness in the manufacturing
and construction sectors. Developments in neighboring Venezuela and high
household debt are the key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see growth of 1.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2020.
The
Trinidad
& Tobago original estimate of expenditure was adjusted up by TT$300
Mn., while revenue was adjusted down by TT$221.0 Mn. in the nation’s Mid-Year Review. Hence, causing an overall fiscal deficit of TT$4.57 billion, compared
with TT$4.05 billion as originally budgeted for the fiscal year 2019.
Inviting Investments; utilizing the
nation’s natural and man-made Competitive Advantages: A small and maneuverable economy, a central geographic location, a peaceful
political environment, a highly skilled and talented workforce, relatively low
crime rates, an oil & gas exporter with strong foreign currency financial
reserves. Investments, foreign or local, to fund Entrepreneurial Ideas which
are judged to be or become viable and can expand existing or develop new sector
or industry Opportunities and Jobs
that will help the people, the nation, the region and other small island
economies Adapt to future challenges.
The
Executive Cabinet must take the lead in preparing the nation’s Resilience
against Climate Change. In insulating the nation’s Data Collection; Auditor
General, Central Bank, Budgetary & Investment Divisions and Statistical
Office from the politics. In strengthening the nation’s financial laws and the
nation’s Security & Exchange Commission to meet international standards,
giving a higher level of comfort to investors. Enhancing the nation’s local
Stock Exchange with new, low risks, listings that will give comfort to
employees and their unions. Offering ownership with steady capital gains to
offset inflationary pressures and pay modest and dependable quarterly dividends
and to utilize IPO gains, while Diversifying for Growth. Noting
that, the objective of any budget adjustment is to better project and provide
via its people and its property and its products, all society’s needs and
wants:
#SYNERGIES
#Security #Healthcare #Education #Infrastructure #EconomicDrivers
Rationale
T.A.J &
Associates Company Limited uses this occasion
to comment on topics that have been covered, both academically and by the
mainstream media, to add its opinion and point out investment opportunity, not
to invoke any social action.
