The World Bank forecasts global economic growth to edge up to
3.1 percent in 2018 after a much stronger-than-expected 2017, as the recovery
in investment, manufacturing, and trade continues. Growth in advanced economies
is expected to moderate slightly to 2.2 percent in 2018, as central banks
gradually remove their post-crisis accommodation and the upturn in investment
growth stabilizes. Global output is estimated by The International
Monetary Fund (IMF) to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage
point faster than projected in the fall and ½ percentage point higher than in
2016. The pickup in growth has been broad based, with notable upside surprises
in Europe and Asia. Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised
upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent.
The
extreme vulnerability of the Caribbean Region was highlighted once again in
2017. Many of Caribbean
Development Bank’s (CDB) Borrowing Member Countries (BMCs)
were affected by the hurricanes that passed through the Caribbean in September.
Notwithstanding the devastating events of 2017, there was an overall uptick in
economic growth to 0.6%. The rebound in oil prices helped producers such as
Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago, although they stayed in recession. Looking
ahead, the Region is expected to grow by 2% in 2018, benefiting from a
projected increase in global economic growth, but risks are tilted on the
downside.
Available data through December showed rising natural gas and
LNG output in the closing months of 2017, suggesting that higher energy prices
are likely fueling the long-awaited upturn of the Trinidad & Tobago economy. Major new projects have come online
in recent months, boosting output and the prospects for downstream activity.
Positive spillovers into the non-energy sector, which are likely materializing
slowly, are sorely needed, given the tepid growth in private-sector lending.
Meanwhile, corporate tax changes and the creation of a new Revenue Authority in
this year’s budget are expected to be new sources of revenue, which could go
some way in alleviating the country’s problematic fiscal imbalances.
FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.2% for 2018 and 2.6% in 2019.
Governance allocation is
budgeted at TT$2.5Bn
4.56% UP 4.50% 2018. A nation's development is badly hindered and retarded by
individual greed; corrupt public officers, bias reporting, unfair hiring
practices, slow justice, unbalance dispute settlements, unlawful opinions,
compromised records, a lack of transparency, general back room dealings,
selling executive influence, misusing presidential privilege, laws to benefit
the few rather than the many, practices and actions which have to be avoided,
rooted out, dealt with and, ultimately replaced by Good Governance. Consisting
of positions, offices, agencies and ministries that monitors good, moral and
ethical, behavior, such as; Ministry of
Public Administration and Communications (MPAC) & The Personnel Department,
The Judiciary & The Industrial Court,
Ministry of the Attorney General and
Legal Affairs, Other Heads of Expenditure involved in Governance, The
Office of the Prime Minister, and The President & The Parliament.
Fiscal Policy
budgetary category is allocated TT$16.7Bn
30.46% DOWN 0.93% 2018. This category, comprises the Ministry of Finance, Charges
on Account of the Public Debt and Pensions
and Gratuities, must focus efforts on increasing productivity and revenue
collection while, reducing the nation's debt and debt servicing expense. Hence,
as core revenues fall, below recurrent expenditure, resulting in mounting
deficits, forcing new borrowings to balance the nation’s annual budget, severe
pending cuts, will then trigger an inability to borrow or repay placing the
economy into a debt trap.
Economic Drivers allocation is
budgeted at TT$2.1Bn
3.84% DOWN 13.44% 2018. The
nation's revenue, to offset its total annual expenditure, comes from the
collections of taxes, duties and royalties; taxes on (personal income) salaries
and wages, on (consumption) sales and value added, on (operations) business
levy and green fund, on (corporation) profits, etc. Such revenue generating
activities are encouraged and facilitated via Economic Drivers, which designs,
implements and reviews the conditions for investment, employment and, the
resulting, taxation. Economic Drivers are administered by the Ministries of Energy and Energy Industries, Agriculture,
Lands and Fisheries, Planning and Development, Foreign and CARICOM Affairs,
Labour and Small Enterprise Development, Trade and Industries, and Tourism.
Infrastructure Management budgetary
category is allocated TT$11.3Bn
20.60% DOWN 0.17% 2018. Such Infrastructure expenditure has widely been
realized and accepted to directly impact productivity; outputs, driven by
comfortable and safe, work and play environments, for example; organizations to
produce and deliver water and electricity, industrial parks, courts, police
stations, hospitals, schools, housing, administration offices, communications,
community centers, open parks, transport hubs, roads and bridges, etc. This
Infrastructure Management category consist of the Ministries of Public Utilities, Works and Transport, Rural Development
and Local Government, Housing and Urban Development and the Tobago House of
Assembly.
Human Development allocation is budgeted
at TT$16.2Bn
29.44% UP 2.14% 2018. The progress of any country, nation, society is driven by
its human resource and the development of such; its citizenry, its people, its
skills and talents. A population that is educated, healthy, well-adjusted as a
society, contributing in the community, supporting culture and the arts,
participating in competitive sport and encouraging the youth, will build and
maintain a happy, respectful, caring and sharing nation. Noting that, growth
industries and job creation are as a direct result of investment in ideas, and
the only true source of ideas is the human being.
Resource Preservation
budgetary category is allocated TT$6.1Bn 11.1% DOWN 8.77% 2018. These funds are
to enact the policies of the Ministry of
National Security; the Defence Forces, its arms, divisions and initiatives,
along with the crime deterrence strategies of the Police Service, whose expenditure is independently control. Many
experts agree that the bottleneck, in achieving crime reduction, resides in the
justice system and that no additional funds allocated to either the Ministry of
National Security or the Police Service can help. Such judicial experts call
for speedy disposal of violent cases, employing video conferencing for
preliminary enquiries and similar strategies, resulting in minimum time spent
in remand, with less exposure to wrong influences, allowing for the falsely
accused to recover a productive law-abiding life, while starting the guilty
person's rehabilitation.
Inviting Investment;
the
nation’s Competitive Advantages; a
small and maneuverable economy, a central geographic location, low incidents of
natural disasters, a peaceful political environment, relatively low crime
rates, an energy producer and strong foreign currency financial reserves. Also,
these investors are being kept informed of numerous adjustments that are being
proposed and would ultimately have an effect on their investment. Of greater
importance, to such investors, are The
Opportunities being proposed, which can generate the desired long-term
Returns On Investment (ROI), realize the nation’s development and significantly
improve living standards. The Executive Cabinet is being asked to take the
lead, by insulating its Auditor General, Central Bank, Budgetary Division and
Statistical Office from the politics, by strengthening the nation’s financial
laws and its Security & Exchange Commission to meet international standards,
enhance its local Stock Exchange with new low risks listings that will offer
steady capital gains to offset inflationary pressures and pay a modest but
dependable quarterly dividend, and to utilize IPO gains to Diversify
the Economy.
Rationale
T.A.J & Associates Company Limited
uses this occasion to comment on topics that have been covered, both academically
and by the mainstream media, to add its opinion and point out investment
opportunity, not to invoke any social action.
