Monday, June 13, 2016

Trust the Data

Data generating information and leading to intelligence coming out of the nation's Auditor General Office, Central Statistical Office and Central Bank, which is used to formulate ecological, social and economic development strategies, make knowledge based decisions and set implementation timelines, must be trusted by all groups of the society. Groups intended to distribute profits to its single or many owners via dividend payouts, so called (Profit-Sharing) private or public companies. Groups organized to keep profits for its future operations, so called Non-Profits or (Profit-Retaining). Groups that negotiate for working conditions, via individual or collective bargaining, so called Workers' Unions. Noting that, all such groups are and must be Profit-Making, as it is such profits that offer that crucially needed continuance, for Business must generate growth to paid salaries, taxes and continue, Unions must protect jobs and fair trade, and Government must balance its budget to improve living standards and protect the nation's most vulnerable.

Audit data is used to identify revenue trends and spending anomalies, to reconcile cash positions, to report on fixed assets registries and debt profiles. The Auditor General Office is led by a tenured public professional officer, with the requisite skills and experiences, with an executive team surrounded by technocrats and further supported by external private audit firms, as needed, who is mandated to report all findings, as scheduled, to the nation's parliament.

Statistical data is used to track unemployment, job creation, population and household growth, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line, and much more. The Statistical Office, also mandated to publicly report via the parliament, is led by a competent chair and directors, employed as public officers, and staffed by trained and experienced full-time and, as needed, contract workers, and supported by external bodies to test any red flagged data.

Monetary data is used to measure local and foreign cash balances, currency values, positive or negative inflation, GDP by sector and many other economic indicators. The Central Bank, with its large mandate reports on a timely basis to the public as to the effects of its present policies and its forecast of key interest rates going forward, is headed by a governor and a board with deputy governors and supporting staff, and can hire contract workers to assist in non-routine tasks.

An independent Office of Budgets uses all available data, from such trusted sources, to project the effects of recurrent and capital expenditure and to forecast tax and non-tax revenues, control assets and capital income, and to calculate borrowings, if necessary, and manage debt servicing, to balance the national budget in the short-term 1-3 years, over the medium-term 4-6 years and in the long-term 7-10 years and beyond. Hence, the input data, information and intelligence used in decision-making must be trusted by Government (Executive & Opposition), Business (Profit Sharing or Retaining) and Unions.

So, as the nation matures it should assign a fair value to assets, once labeled as strategically important, which has grown into profitable state enterprises operating in key sectors (Utilities, Transportation and Tourism). Now, taking tough data driven decisions to raise cash, to fund new industrial sectors while reducing liabilities via disposal of state assets, can easily be justified and accepted by all society's groups. With the nation divesting a small portion of combined state enterprises, via listings on the local stock exchange, remains in operational and regulatory control, reserving a fixed portion for and encouraging workers and their unions to become owners/investors through an employee share ownership plan (ESOP) and their traditional pension plans.

Rationale

T.A.J & Associates Company Limited uses this occasion to comment on topics that have been covered, both academically and by the mainstream media, to add its opinion and point out investment opportunity, not to invoke any social action.